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Morning all! I haven’t blogged in nearly a week because, frankly, I wasn’t happy with my approach and have been trying to think of ways in which I can stand out a bit more. So, rather than just post things that everyone knows anyway (match reports etc.), I’m going take a more analytical approach.

Right then, the first matches of the Round of 16 take place tonight. In an all-South American evening, first up is Brazil vs Chile, and after that Colombia clash with Uruguay. Now here’s the thing: naturally, Brazil and Uruguay are the favourites to progress, but in my eyes Chile and Colombia have a better chance of progressing if both teams continue to play the way they have played in the tournament thus far.

Why I think Chile should beat Brazil

Look at the group stage match between Chile and Spain, in which the Chileans completely dismantled the defending champions. Defensively, the entire team was switched on, working very hard to frustrate Spain and disrupt their famously boring tiki-taka football. When they attacked, they went forward with pace and menace, looking to get into the Spanish box as quickly as possible and create a clear-cut goal scoring opportunity. I thought once or twice early in the second half of that game Chile might have even scored a third, but were guilty of too many passes, with each player trying to set his teammate up rather than having a pop himself.

This is where I think, provided they use the same strategy, Chile will really hurt Brazil. Dani Alves and Marcelo are both excellent full backs when it comes to going forward, but their forays forward leave them susceptible to the break. If Chile sit back and invite Brazil towards them, and work hard to frustrate and deny the Brazilians space, they’ll eventually win the ball back, and at that point it’s likely that at least one of the Brazilian fullbacks will be out of position. Centre-half David Luiz can also be defensively suspect nervy situations, and Eduardo Vargas, Alexis Sanchez and co. should aim to test him rather than the more assured Thiago Silva.

Being defensively switched on, sitting back somewhat and pressing the Brazilians into under-pressure situations should also stifle the hosts’ creativity. Keep Neymar quiet (bully him out of the game if you have to) and Brazil suddenly look very ordinary indeed. They’re nothing on the great Brazilian teams of the past, and are more or less a one-man team as they seem to be relying on Neymar to get them their victories (even against a team as bad as Cameroon). Chile, however, despite having star men Vargas and Sanchez in the side, look much more like an actual team to me. They work hard, they all know their jobs, and are generally rather impressive.

People will point to the loss to the Netherlands as proof that Chile aren’t world-beaters, and I agree with that. Brazil can certainly win this one if they really apply themselve But I think if they play against Brazil the way they did against Spain, they’re my favourites to get into the quarter finals, not the hosts.

Why I think Colombia should beat Uruguay

Firstly, let’s take a look at Colombia. With eleven goals in the tournament thus far, they’re the joint-highest scoring team (along with the Netherlands), and won all three of their group games convincingly. In addition, they’ve only conceded twice. Granted, they didn’t have the toughest of groups (Greece, Japan and Ivory Coast), but they’ve looked a surprisingly good team thus far and I honestly thought that their group would be tighter (it was for the other three teams, though).

Uruguay, on the other hand, really haven’t impressed me in this tournament. Luis Suarez won them the game against England, but after mixing his cannibalistic instincts with a desire to check out the full range of what the Italian cuisine has to offer, he’s no longer around. So who do Uruguay turn to? Their other big-name going forward is Edinson Cavani, but despite all the hype I’ve never seen what’s supposed to be so good about him. He has a goal (penalty vs Costa Rica that was ultimately meaningless) and an assist (lovely dinked ball for Suarez’ first vs England) but has otherwise looked completely anonymous. Is he someone who can suddenly produce something out of nothing? Maybe, but I’ve never been overly convinced by him. But who else for Uruguay is a serious danger man? Centre-half Diego Godin has an uncanny knack for scoring important goals in important games, but you can’t bank on your defender scoring from a set piece in each match. I think if Colombia work hard they can completely nullify most of Uruguay’s attacking threat.

Uruguay are also suspect at the back, and as Costa Rica proved trouble dealing with pacey forwards is something Uruguay’s back line are susceptible to. Although marshalled by the impressive Godin, there’s really not a whole lot you can say in their backline’s favour. Italy were kept out, but that was largely due to poor finishing and the Italians eventually going down to 10 men and being forced to sit back. That’s not to say I don’t think Uruguay have a chance, they most certainly do, but without Suarez they’re missing their talisman and really look quite ordinary without him.

Ultimately, though, I think it’s important for the Colombians to take the game to Uruguay. Work hard to break up their play when off the ball, and hit them with pace and all-around positivity when on the ball.

 

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Let’s have us some upsets tonight! More tomorrow. Until then…